22 October 2004

The weather

After long introspective thoughts and probably making people mad at my political views I thought that I would write about nothing in particular. So the weather is the next thing to talk about. Hopefully, I won't go on some rant about that as well.

As I have been in the weather business for 15 years now(not including college) and the more things change the more they stay the same. Forecasting in an of itself hasn't much changed. Just the tools we use. The computers, computer modeling, radar and other remote sensing devices, just add in to the tools, but we still forecast the same way, pattern recognition. Even when we find something that brings better understanding to why something happens, the next thing we do is try to see the patterns that cause it so that we can forecast the event. It is a slow imperfect process, since as similar as events may look, I have yet to see the same event twice. Considering that chaos theory (discovered by a meteorologist) would dictate the same thing, it's a miracle that we get anywhere in the science. Okay, it's not that bad. Similar events usually bring about similar results. However, the people on the edge of a storm who didn't get the amount of snow we forecast, because the storm moved 10 miles farther away from them than we thought, think we blew the forecast. When in essence we actually did a pretty good job considering what we know.
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